Stealing Bases: Cops & Robbers (2024)

Stolen bases are not awarded to runners who advance on a wild pitch, a passed ball, a balk, or a disengagement violation. Although bases are usually stolen during/after the pitch is delivered to the plate, in 2014 David Peralta stole home when the catcher softly lobbed the ball back to the pitcher.

As the dishevilled detective Columbo would say, “Just one more thing...”; Who are bases stolen from? Bases can be stolen off a pitcher (who either allows the runner a large lead, or who takes a long time to throw each pitch), they can be stolen off a catcher who has a weak or inaccurate arm, and they can be stolen off a (non-wild) pitch that is low and slow, perhaps breaking and hitting the ground.

Robbers: When Bases are Stolen.

For Diamondbacks on the basepaths, their total stolen bases (and their success percentage) peaked in 2023. This season feels more like 2022. Two possibilities:

2023 was an awesome outlier, and 2022 is the Diamondbacks’ baseline.
2024 got off to a slow start, and will improve to reach the 2023 peak, which is the Diamondbacks’ baseline.

My naturally optimistic view is that 2023 is the baseline, and that the Diamondbacks are just tuning up for an exhibition of awesome base stealing.

The following table shows the Diamondbacks stolen bases per game and their success rate. As a point of reference, this AZ Snake Pit article When Baserunning Matters, indicates the break-even success rate for stealing bases is about 70-75%.

Corbin Carroll stole 54 bases last season. That is amazing. Let’s compare him to two other players:

Tim Locastro was a baseball magnet (often getting hit by the pitch). Locastro was widely known (AZ Snake Pit article) for his base stealing in 2019, when he stole 17 bases. Corbin Carroll is at a higher level.
Mike Trout made his debut in 2011. In 2012 he stole 49 bases, 5 less than Corbin Carroll. Corbin Carroll compares favorably to Mike Trout!

This season, Corbin Carroll’s had 8 stolen bases on 19 April. Two players had more: Ely De La Cruz (10) and Brice Turang (9). But, the season is only a month old.

Let’s look at a broader measure of baserunning, BsR.

“Base Running (BsR) is FanGraphs’ all encompassing base running statistic that turns stolen bases, caught stealings, and other base running plays (taking extra bases, being thrown out on the bases, etc) into runs above and below average. It is the combination of Weighted Stolen Base Runs (wSB), Weighted Grounded Into Double Play Runs (wGDP), and Ultimate Base Running (UBR) which are all available on the leaderboards and player pages.” — FanGraphs

As a team, the Diamondbacks’ BsR is on a trend of improving every season. The Diamondbacks ranked second best in the Majors in 2022, and best in the Majors in 2023. Although this season they got a slow start, by the end of the season they will likely be back at the top. The following table shows the Diamondbacks BsR since 2021.

Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. are leading the Diamondbacks in BsR. The following table shows the Diamondbacks with the most BsR this season.

Although the Diamondbacks baserunners are known for their speed and daring on the basepaths, less well known, and perhaps more impressive are the Diamondbacks on defense. Let’s look at Diamondbacks’ pitching.

Cops: When Basestealers are Caught.

In our analogy, Diamondbacks’ pitcher/catcher batteries are like television detective duos. Extending our analogy, the infielder who fields the catcher’s throw and tags the runner is like a police seargent who apprehends the suspect. Perhaps the two hardest earned skills are handling off-line throws and knowing how to tag the runner in each situation.

In April of 2023, an AZ Snake Pit article, Thwarting Stolen Bases, stated that the Diamondbacks’ pitchers had supernatural talent in preventing stolen bases. And the incredible great news is that they have improved on their supernatural talent. First, they improved in 2023. Second, this season is on target for yet another incremental improvement. In short, they are likely the best team in the Majors in preventing stolen bases. The following table shows that improvement.

Summary.

Last season, the Diamondbacks’ base stealers were the best in the Majors. This season they are off to a slow start, but will likely be back at the top.

The Diamondbacks’ defenders against basestealing, starting from excellent in 2021, improved in 2022 and 2023. This season they are even better, truly worthy of their supernatural description.